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Nine Tight Elections to Watch

Election Tuesday is next week, Nov. 8. Thirty-six states will vote for a new governor, 34 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats are open for election and all 470 Congress seats are open as well. These are the swing states to watch.


Top 4 Governor Races


Arizona:


Kari Lake (R), a former news anchor, and Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D) are the runners up for the Arizona Governor elections. Lake has received endorsement from Trump but is facing pushback on her views about abortion. Meanwhile Hobbs certified the 2020 election results, proving that the state voted for Biden.


The two have tied at 49% each putting them in the margin of error according to a CBS News-YouGov Battleground Tracker survey.


“It’s the economy, crime and immigration. And that’s what’s unique about Arizona, as opposed to some other states, is that immigration is really a top three issue. And Republicans like Kari Lake have an advantage on that issue,” Phil Cox, former executive director for the Republican Governors Association said.


Florida


Current Governor Ron DeSantis is shown to be in the lead by 11% against his Democratic opponent, Charlie Crist. Though predictions might weigh in favor of DeSantis, especially with his deep pockets, the results could still shock the nation. With Floridians still recovering from Hurricane Ian and the potential for DeSantis to run for president in 2024, the Democrats could win a previously red state.


Georgia


Stacy Abrams is back and in a battle with current Georgia governor Brian Kemp. In a tight race, Kemp beat Abrams in 2018 by 55,000 votes. In a heated debate the two argued over abortion, voting rights and the economy. They have opposite views on each topic which could result in very different lives for Georgia residents depending on the outcome.


Oregon


Oregon is facing a three-way tie between three women. State House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) is the leading competitor though Oregon has not elected a Republican governor since 1982. An independent and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson holds a 19% approval rating according to an Emerson College Poll. The third in the electoral trio is former state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D). Kotek falls behind Drazan by 2% making it a close race.


“Drazan’s message is meeting voters right where their top concerns are on the economy, on crime and on homelessness, which is a huge issue in the state,” Cox, the former executive director for the RGA, said.


Top 3 Senate Races


Colorado


After the 2020 census Colorado is adding an 8th Congressional District. The four candidates include: Yadira Caraveo (D), Barbara Kirkmeyer (R), Richard Ward (L), and Tim Long (Colorado Center Party). The district is made up of 39% Hispanic and Latino people, the most representation in the state. The political affiliations are also diverse; 1.27% percent of the district's active registered voters are Democrats, 24% are Republicans, and 46% are unaffiliated.


Maine


Rep. Jared Golden (D) is running against multiple Republicans including former Rep. Bruce Poliquin and state Rep. Mike Perkins. The second district in question represents 80% of the state. Though Trump won the second district in the 2020 election they also elected Golden as a Democratic representative. The election has been described as a “toss up.”


Wyoming


Wyoming’s house seat, currently held by Liz Cheney, is set to be a “bloodbath.” Cheney’s Republican competitor, Harriet Hageman, is backed by Trump. Cheney is known for her criticism of Trump, specifically revolving around the Jan. 6 insurrection. According to a July poll, Hageman was in the lead among the Republican primaries.


Top 2 Senate Races


Pennsylvania


The debate between Mehmet Oz (R) and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) got over 700k views on YouTube as the two fought a close match. After the debate, polls showed that Fetterman was in the lead over Oz by 4%. However, Fetterman’s stroke could ultimately be his downfall with 52% of voters saying Fetterman is not capable of serving a six year term.


Georgia


Georgia is facing two pivotal elections this year with Herschel Walker (R) and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) in a race for a Senate seat. Polls show Warnock in the lead by 3%. Warnock is the pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, where Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. also served as pastor. He is interested in bipartisan legislation. His competitor, Walker is a former football player appointed to the Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition by Trump. Walker has been accused of forcing two women to have abortions which he has denied. Walker has also been accused of domestic abuse by his ex-wife. However, polling shows only a 6% difference in the public’s view of integrity from both candidates making it a close race.




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